History books present the assassination of Austrian Hungarian prince Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo as the beginning of the First World War. Indeed, just a few weeks after Serbian anarchist Gavrilo Princip’s attack, a war involving the entire continent broke out. The assassination lit the fuse of the fire of war that would burn Europe.
Today, evaluating the past, it can be better understood that by taking the necessary precautions at the time, a possible war could have been easily prevented. Even though similar things are happening before our eyes right now, people can still become absorbed in the flow of events and drift along.
Today, 100 years after First World War, especially some Muslim countries are dragged into hot wars. Libya, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq are in civil war. Egypt and Pakistan are struggling with coups. The coup attempt in Turkey could only be avoided thanks to the resistance of the people. Iran has been under embargo for years. Countries that are geopolitically close to the region experience a similar situation. Russia is under heavy sanctions, Ukraine is in civil war. Georgia and Kyrgyzstan were shaken by color revolutions. Palace coups are on the front burner in Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The Arabian Peninsula is divided into two by the Qatar crisis.
On top of all this disorder, coalition aircraft are burning down Muslim cities under the premise of fighting against ISIS. The Mediterranean is filled with warships and warplanes. Maps that divide the Middle East are emerging one after another. The things that happened at the dawn of the First World War such as forming of blocs, the arms race, demonstrations of power, efforts to capture other countries, are happening exactly in the same way again, like a bad movie remake. The recent US arms shipments to the PYD in North Syria have reached 1000 trucks. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are signing new arms purchase contracts one after the other. The region is virtually dragged into a war that can swallow the whole world.
Since the spring of 2016, there have been developments in the region that can prevent the war. First, the tension between Turkey and Russia, the two countries that are sought to be isolated, has come to an end. The Russian-Turkish alliance, with the participation of Iran, began to take rational steps for a solution for the issue of Syria. Thanks to the Astana Talks, the civil war that has been going on in Syria for 5 years has been alleviated to some extent. Regarding the Qatar crisis, this alliance also prevented the conflict from escalating.
Today, two new fuses are sought to be lit in the region. The US is carrying out significant weapons aid to the YPG/PYD to be used against ISIS , which it considers as an ally in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Undoubtedly, the plan to establish a Kurdish state in Syria will lead to a great disorder in the region and bring new conflicts and disputes with it. Currently, YPG is proclaiming cantons in the Afrin region and in northern Syria, taking advantage of the administrative vacancy. No doubt, it is impossible for Turkey to accept such a dangerous structure. Moreover, Turkmen, Kurds and Arabs in Syria are suffering from the persecution imposed by communist PYD. The terrorist group has made countless human rights violations against the people of the region since it seized power by force. US supports a terrorist organization to fight against another terrorist organization. This is a faulty strategy that will lead to the division of Syria and cause the region to fall into conflict.
A new plan to disturb the territorial integrity of Iraq is also in effect. The Northern Iraq Regional Government is resisting for a referendum for independence. Despite the opposition from many countries, including Russia, US and Iran, the referendum process is progressing rapidly. The establishment of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq may cause unrest in the region. Not pleased with this, the Iraqi administration will react to this, divisions will beget new divisions and further, it will also give the green light for a Kurdish state, which is planned to be established by the PKK.
Consequently, it should be seen that the kind of attacks which will cause more division and conflicts in the Middle East may be unfavorable and these plans must be abandoned for the time being.
The alliances developing in the region have always become instrumental for positive developments; and they still do. For instance, it is an important development that Turkey and Iran have announced their decision to jointly fight against the PKK and PJAK in response to the armament of the PYD. As a result of this alliance the two countries demonstrated that they wouldn’t allow the establishment of a communist Kurdish state extending from Qandil to the Mediterranean covering northern Iraq and Syria. There has been significant military and diplomatic traffic in the past few weeks regarding this issue. For the first time since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, an Iranian Chief of Staff came to Ankara. The Russian chief of staff also announced he will visit Turkey in a few days. Again, last week, it was reported by news agencies that a sales agreement for Russian S-400 missile defense systems have been signed by Turkey. With the participation of Qatar, this alliance has become even stronger.
These can be regarded as important steps to prevent the war scenarios planned in the region.
We need to remember that millions of Muslims are longing for an alliance that will protect the justice and the rights of the peoples of the region. Powers participating from outside the region usually gives priority to its own interests. This egoistic approach has only brought blood and tears to the Middle East for 150 years. Every plan that does not seek peace for the Middle East brings the world one step closer to the fire. In order to accelerate the steps taken for peace, the nations active in the region must act by thinking about the people in the region and the post-war regime. For this, it is necessary for them to follow a rational, self-sacrificing, flexible policy for peace. As for the establishment of permanent peace in the Middle East, it can only be achieved by the unification of communities of different ethnicities, different sects, different religions and philosophical beliefs in middle ground.
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